How Carlton Football Club Can Overcome Challenges and Return to Finals Contention

Watching the Carlton Football Club navigate the recent seasons feels, in a strange way, reminiscent of a moment from international basketball that stuck with me. I recall reading about Gilas Pilipinas’ hard-fought 66-57 win, where a player named Oftana’s victory was almost derailed by a single, painful misstep—he stepped on an opponent’s foot with just over three minutes left, throwing him into a “world of pain.” That image is a powerful metaphor for the Blues. We’ve seen moments of brilliance, quarters of dominant play that suggest a finals-worthy side, only to be undone by a critical, self-inflicted error, a lapse in concentration at the worst possible moment. The path back to September contention isn’t just about adding more talent; it’s about building the resilience and tactical discipline to avoid those game-changing missteps. From my perspective, having analyzed list profiles and game trends for years, Carlton’s return hinges on three interconnected pillars: surgical list management, a tactical evolution beyond the “contest and chaos” model, and the cultivation of a ruthless, consistent mindset.

Let’s start with the list, because frankly, it’s where my inner analyst gets most excited. The core is there—we all see the elite talent in Cripps, Walsh, Curnow, and McKay. But the devil, as they say, is in the depth. The supporting cast has too often been inconsistent. To bridge the gap from a 10-12 win team to a consistent top-eight side, the Blues need to be brutally honest in their assessment. It might mean making some tough calls on loyal servants who are good, but not quite good enough to lift the team in a cut-throat final. The recruitment focus, in my view, should shift slightly. We’ve stocked up on explosive midfielders and key forwards. Now, we need more of those two-way running wingmen who can cover 15 kilometers a game and hurt the opposition going the other way. We need another lockdown small defender to release Saad for more offensive bursts. I’d be looking at targeting a player who averages 22 disposals and 5.5 tackles per game—that two-way pressure is gold. The draft is crucial, but so is the trade period. Carlton can’t afford another off-season where they’re just spectators; they need to be aggressive in pursuing one or two specific role players who fix identifiable weaknesses, even if it costs a future second-round pick.

On the field, the game plan needs refinement. I’ve lost count of the times I’ve watched us dominate inside 50s, say 60 to 40, but lose because of poor conversion or sloppy ball movement coming out of defense. The “contest at all costs” mentality built a strong identity, but the best teams have layers. We need a more reliable plan B for when the contested ball isn’t falling our way. The midfield mix, for instance, sometimes feels one-paced. I’d love to see more strategic use of someone like Zac Fisher, injecting pure speed into the center bounces at key moments to change the rhythm, rather than just rolling with the same big-bodied trio. Our ball movement from defensive 50 can be predictable. The switch across the backline is a good safety valve, but it often feels slow, allowing the opposition to reset their defensive structure. We need to take the corridor more often, maybe 25% more often, to punish teams that over-commit to the wings. It’s high-risk, but high-reward, and it’s what separates the good teams from the genuine contenders. This isn’t about abandoning our DNA; it’s about sophisticating it.

All of this, however, is underpinned by mentality. This is the intangible that stats sheets often miss. The Oftana story isn’t about the skill; it’s about enduring pain to secure the win. Carlton has, in recent years, developed a worrying pattern of following a stirring victory with a flat, inexplicable loss. That’s a consistency and professionalism issue. Building a finals-ready mindset means developing a ruthless edge to put away weaker teams and a steely resilience to win the close ones. Our record in games decided by under 10 points last season was, if I recall correctly, a dismal 2-5. That has to flip. It comes from training standards, from leadership beyond just the captain, and from an unshakable belief in the system. I want to see less emotional fluctuation week-to-week and more of a cold, professional approach to getting the job done, regardless of the opponent. That’s the hallmark of every great side I’ve studied.

So, can Carlton return to finals contention? Absolutely. The foundation is more solid than it has been in two decades. But the journey now is about fine-tuning, not overhauling. It requires the list management team to make precise, unsentimental decisions, the coaching panel to add nuance and flexibility to the game style, and the entire playing group to embrace a consistent, finals-hardened mindset that avoids those catastrophic “stepping on a foot” moments. If they can synchronize these elements, the pain of the recent past will be a distant memory, replaced by the thrill of September football. As a long-time observer and fan, I believe we’re closer than many think, but the most difficult step—the step from promising to proven—is right in front of us.